Η
ληστεία συνεχίστηκε και μετά τα CDS! Δείτε τι απέκρυψε ο Στουρνάρας στην βουλή
των Ελλήνων!Εκτός εάν
γνωρίζετε εσείς κάποια αντίστοιχη “επένδυση” που να αποδίδει 500% κέρδος σε
λίγους μήνες με κρατική εγγύηση! Ακόμα και στον πιο ακραίο καπιταλισμό.Οι ορδές
των “φίλων επενδυτών” του Παπανδρέου πενταπλασίασαν τα λεφτά τους ΕΓΓΥΗΜΕΝΑ, σε
κάτι που το Bloomberg χαρακτήρισε ως την μεγαλύτερη κερδοσκοπία πάνω σε κρατικά
ομόλογα που έχει καταγραφεί. Το γράφημα που βλέπετε, είναι ξεκάθαρο.
“Κερδισμένοι”; Η οικογένεια Κλίντον, ο Σορος,
ο Πώλσον. (Ο Γιώργος
Παπανδρέου, τα CDS και το δημοψήφισμα.)Εγγυητής; Ο Στουρνάρας! Πληρώνει τα
ακούρευτα ομόλογα χωρίς να λογοδοτεί στην βουλή για το ΠΟΙΟΥΣ πληρώνει!
Χαμένοι; Εμείς. Η Ελλάδα. Εμείς τα πληρώνουμε και όπως χαρακτηριστικά αναφέρει
το πρακτορείο, δεν τα πληρώνουμε μόνο με χρήμα αλλά και με πόνο.
Διαβάστε:
Greece Sells Low, Buys High
Κανείς δεν
πληρώνει περισσότερο για να αγοράσει αυτά τα ομόλογα, από ότι η Ελλάδα.
Τουλάχιστον,
όχι σε χρήμα. Μερικοί άνθρωποι καταβάλλουν για αυτά, πόνο.
Τώρα η
Ελλάδα προσφέρει 30 με 40 σεντς στο δολάριο για τα ομόλογα. Τα hedge funds που
τα αγόρασαν για λιγότερο από ό, τι αυτό, φαίνονται ευτυχή.
Αφού η
Ελλάδα δηλώνει λιγότερο απεγνωσμένη πια και ότι υποστηρίζεται περισσότερο απ
την τρόικα, γιατί θα πρέπει να δέχεται αυτές τις τιμές;
Δείτε από
την πλευρά του επενδυτή: αν δηλαδή πήρατε την αρχική ελληνική τιμή, για τα
παλιά ομόλογα σας, μέχρι τώρα, βγάζετε περισσότερο απο 25-26 λεπτά ανα δολάριο.
Το
οποίο υποθέτουμε είναι καλό πράγμα για εσάς.
Δείτε
περισσότερα:
VIDEO.WSJ.Είναι
αλήθεια,τα Funds αγοράζουν Ελλάδα, με 20 σεντς το δολάριο, περιμένοντας νεο PSI
That’s the entire history of the shortest-dated of
bonds targeted for a buyback at, you might notice, their all-time high price.
Various people have various reactions to this but one reaction that no one can
have is of the variety of “well, I paid more than that to buy it, so I’m not
selling it to you for less, since I live in a non-mark-to-market dreamworld.”
Nobody paid more to buy these bonds than Greece is planning to.
At least, not in money. Some people paid for
these bonds in suffering; others – most others – paid for them in the form of
old Greek bonds, which once upon a time were, I guess, worth 100 cents on the
dollar. Later, they weren’t. Eventually they were rounded up in a restructuring
where every €1,000 of old bonds got exchanged into €315 face amount of new
bonds, €150 face amount of let’s say par-ish EFSF notes, and €315 face amount
of Greek GDP-linked securities which were worth around nothing. The total package
was worth around €210-250, depending on what day you looked at it, which if you
do the math assuming the EFSF bonds were worth par and the GDP warrants zero,
gets you a value for those new bonds of €60-100, or 19 to 32 cents on the
dollar of face amount.
Now Greece is offering 30 to 40 cents on the
dollar for those bonds. Hedge funds who bought them for less than that seem
happy; Greek hold-to-maturity banks are grumbly about being forced into the
offer, though for no discernibly good reason. Here you can fiddle with
calculations of how much Greece will save by doing this buyback.
Here you can look at additional fiddling, which
does various lazy simplifying things but makes the point that if instead of
offering new Greek bonds way back in the olden days of March, the Greece/Troika
entity had offered this deal, they could have retired about €40ish billion of
debt, rather than the €29-31ish billion they’re targeting today.
Anyway, for your consideration. (Also consider:
looking at that table, why would Greece buy in any of its shorter-dated bonds?
It’s paying both a higher dollar price and a higher yield for the bonds
maturing in the 2020s; the higher dollar price means less “debt sustainability”
bang for your buck, while the higher yields will look silly if Greece ever gets
back to normal and its yield curve un-inverts. Are they trying to buy roughly
equal amounts of each bond to appease the buy-and-hold investors who own the
whole strip, or will they end up weighting this toward the back end?)
Obviously the dynamics have changed: that graph
at the top of this post pretty much stands for the proposition “when you go
around saying you’re going to buy up your debt, your debt gets more expensive.”
But as someone who is generally a big believer in can-kicking, I find the math,
and the overall shape of that chart, somewhat sobering. Greece hit bottom,
more-or-less defaulted on its debt, and now … is coming back to ask for more.
On worse terms, which makes sense: with Greece looking less desperate and more
Troika-supported, why should you sell it back its bonds at a steep discount?
I guess you can look at it from the investor’s
perspective: if you took the original Greek exchange, you thought you were
getting 23 cents on the dollar for your old bonds (and your CDS paid out ~78.5
cents); if you held from now until then it turns out you’re getting more like
25-26 cents of value. (Plus maybe those GDP warrants will pay off?) Which I
guess is a good thing: it’s always easier to get investors to take the next
deal if they made out well on the last one. Perhaps this sell-low-buy-high
strategy is smart in the long run.
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